Tuesday, June 11, 2024 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by The Tower
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The bottom of the NL East will collide for the first of three on Tuesday night. The Miami Marlins (22-43; 10-18 away) are the visitors this time, ready to take on the New York Mets (28-36; 13-22 home). Citi Field will host the action at 7:10 p.m. EDT. In May, the Marlins took two of three from the Mets. Will game one of this week's series have a similar outcome?
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Marlins Still Floundering
Entering this series, Miami has dropped six of their last seven games. They didn't score in three of those losses. So it goes for a team that has been losing all season and an offense that's 29th in runs per game (3.58). The Marlins use the league's 11th-best strikeout percentage to bat .234 (19th), and that's about all they do well. Otherwise, this team is last in walk percentage, 29th in OBP, 29th in slugging, 28th in homers, and 22nd in stolen bases. Only three teams have a lower stolen-base percentage. Scoring does not come easy for this squad.
Pitching hasn't been much better, which is the main difference from a year ago. The team will be looking to trade away any arms that they can move forward. Lefty Jesus Luzardo should be one of those players, but he's having an awful season. He gave up nine runs last time out, bringing his ERA back up to. 5.30. Luzardo has a 6.48 ERA on the road. Some positive news is that he held the Mets to five hits and no runs in a May start. Miami's relievers are also 11th in WAR. Will they blank the Mets on Tuesday?
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Mets Back in America
It was tight, but the Mets secured a 6-5 victory to wrap up their London trip against the Phillies. They'll try to use any momentum that they can to salvage this wayward season. It's easiest to hope that New York's offense stays productive, as they average a modest 4.38 (t-13th) runs per game. The Mets are 15th in batting average, 12th in OBP, and 14th in slugging percentage. They succeed in 85% of their stolen base attempts (4th) and have the league's seventh-lowest strikeout percentage. New York is 11th in home runs. They may only rank 20th in walk percentage, but this lineup does a lot well.
Pitching has been a different story for the Mets too. Closer Edwin Diaz struggled and hit the IL, so the bullpen hasn't been as intimidating as expected. New York's rotation has been a mixed bag. Tylor Megill will take the hill trying to stay strong at home. He has pitched 11.0 innings in Citi Field this season, only allowing two total runs (one earned) against the Brewers and Dodgers in those games. Megill has a 3.00 ERA for the season, despite the Mets' 1-3 record in his outings. Can he pitch well enough to give them another chance to win at home?
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Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
Thus far in June, there's been a 42.9% chance that the Marlins won't score any runs for a given game. Against Tylor Megill, who slowed down the Brewers (5th in runs per game) at home before blanking the Dodgers (6th in runs per game), Miami should be a breeze. New York's bullpen shouldn't struggle with them either.
In the other dugout, there aren't any guarantees that Jesus Luzardo will dominate the Mets again. He had his worst start of the season at home last Tuesday (9 runs allowed) and has a 6.48 ERA on the road. The Mets improve to a .260 team batting average and .760 team OPS against left-handed pitchers. Expect New York to win by multiple runs.
Prediction: New York Mets -1.5
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Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Rating:
There's no reason to trust either offense in this game. The Mets dip to 3.46 runs per game at home, with worse numbers in the three-slash line statistics. Miami's season average is barely above that, 3.58 runs per game, MLB's second-lowest mark. Citi Field has been very kind to pitchers.
Luzardo has already blanked the Mets this year, so he's capable of keeping them in check Miami's bullpen is 11th in WAR. Megill pitched well in two home starts against great offenses, so the Marlins should be a breeze. The Mets' bullpen is middle-of-the-pack in ERA and FIP, which is good enough against Miami. Roll with the under.
Prediction: Under 7.5
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Written ByAndre Ifill , "The Tower"
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
