The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typicallyinclude three sections:
- Current Auctions:A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds:Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers:Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:
- Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
- Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
- Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
- Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.
Current Auctions
Tobias Myers – 42 current auctions
Our friend Jake Mailhot wrote up Myers as an under-rostered pitcher worth adding just yesterday! Here’s a snippet from his recent post:
Tobias Myers has been thrust into a much larger role than expected thanks to all the injuries the Brewers have suffered in their pitching staff…He’s definitely benefitting from some good batted ball luck — his BABIP allowed this month is a measly .182 — but…he’s running whiff rates higher than 30% on both his slider and changeup which gives him two pretty decent weapons to attack batters with once he’s established the fastball.
I like to think everyone ran to the waiver wire after reading Jake’s post. Myers is 25 years old and gaining lots of valuable experience, so this feels like a future build and a pick that can help your roster now. Roster Resource has him lined up to face the Cubs this weekend.
Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy.
Hunter Goodman – 30 current auctions
This season, the 24-year-old righty is hitting a paltry .174 against right-handed pitching. Here are his slash-line splits:
vsR: .174/.219/.333
vsL: .250/.273/.719
Neither line is good, but what about that huge slugging percentage against left-handed pitching? He’s hit two home runs in the past two weeks against lefties and he’s been able to hit for extra bases versus them throughout the year. Here is a visual from baseball savant of all of Goodman’s extra-base hits against left-handed pitching in 2024:
Unfortunately, Goodman can’t just bat against lefties all the time. While Goodman comes with the added value of being catcher-eligible, he’s only producing 3.29 points per game, which is still under replacement level for catchers, ~3.75 P/G. He’ll need to start hitting righties to increase his value.
Verdict:Don’t Go Crazy.
Spencer Turnbull – 25 current auctions
It was reported over the weekend that Turnbull will be joining the Phillies rotation due to an injury (finger) to Taijuan Walker. Turnbull began the year as a starter and produced a 1.67 ERA with 10.02 K/9. His FIP jumped to 3.24 during that time as he gave up three home runs and ran a 2.78 BB/9. When he was converted to a reliever, his ERA rose to 4.26 and his BB/9 stayed at a high 3.79. It’s a little scary to think what might happen if Turnbull continues to walk batters at a high rate while adding more innings as a starter, but he has a slider, a changeup, and a curveball with positive pitch values and over 100 Stuff+ values. The biggest issue is the sub-par fastball (92 Stuff+, 96 Location+) that hitters have tagged for a .411 slugging percentage. It may be wise to add Turnbull given his promotion to the rotation, but to bench him for his first start (today) against the Tigers. Though, you could roll the dice on a Tigers offense that has produced only a 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2024.
Verdict:Don’t Stress.
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Roster Adds
Jonathan Cannon – Add% Change (7 Days) – 31.0%
Before June 23rd, Cannon had two starts that went over 7.0 IP each and posted a combined 0.57 ERA with 11 strikeouts. Fantasy manager heads started to turn. Then in his next start, as baseball is a fickle, fickle game, Cannon only made it through one inning, giving up five earned runs on two home runs while only striking out one batter. The 23-year-old righty has potential and Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin noted that in their Chicago White Sox prospect report earlier this year:
He likely won’t have monstrous bat-missing ability. but Cannon is a high-floored no. 4/5 starter prospect thanks to his repertoire depth and command
He’s gaining valuable experience in 2024 and it would be wise to stash Cannon and see how things pan out in his next few starts.
Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy.
Daniel Schneemann – Add% Change (7 Days) – 27.6%
Is there a correlation between David Laurila’s Sunday Notes on Schneemann and his increased auction rate? My guess is yes. In that report, Laurila pointed out:
A bat-speed program has also contributed to his success. Schneemann began implementing it at the team’s Goodyear, Arizona facility this past October, then continued it into the offseason.
Yet, fantasy managers should take note of his likely platoon split as listed by Roster Resource, while also noting the actual splits:
vsL: .308/.438/.692 (16 PA)
vsR: .273/.368/.485 (38 PA)
He hasn’t showcased struggles against lefties in his small sample size of plate appearances and he’s actually hit one home run and one triple against lefties. We’ll have to get more of a look at the 26-year-old before we can determine his true talent levels as a major leaguer, but for now, his 14.8% BB%, 12.5% barrel rate, and 56.3% hard-hit rate are huge indicators of talent. On the other hand, his 25.9% K%, .367 BABIP, and below-average zone contact rate (84.4% vs. 85.3% MLB avg.) are red flags.
Verdict:Don’t Go Crazy.
Tyler Soderstrom – Add% Change (7 Days) – 22.9%
At 3.99 P/G through 39 games and 108 at-bats, Soderstrom is a catcher-eligible player slightly above replacement level (~3.75 P/G). Will he be able to maintain that standing? Well in his second season as a major leaguer he has increased all of the following metrics over last season’s marks:
Z-Contact%, Barrel%, maxEV, HardHit%
His xBA (.244) is greater than his actual BA (.239) and the same is true of his xSLG (.530) versus his actual SLG (.450). While he’s still striking out at a very high rate of 29.6%, he’s also walking at a decent clip of 10.4%. Roster Resource has him in a platoon, but like Schneemann (above), his numbers don’t necessarily support that, though it is a small sample:
vsL: .300/.364/.500 (11 PA)
vsR: .232/.333/.444 (114 PA)
There seems to be a lot of potential here if you can sneak in an auction and keep the price down.
Verdict:Don’t Go Crazy.
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Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.
CJ Abrams – (12.1 P/G)
Don’t look now, but the Nationals are only three games below 500 and CJ Abrams is one of their superstars. In the last 14 days (51 PA), Abrams has slashed .489/.549/.778, has hit two home runs and has three stolen bases. It has come with a .513 BABIP, but he was probably already on your roster anyway, so ride the wave baby!
Brandon Nimmo – (11.1 P/G)
Nimmo is getting his 2024 batting average (.245) closer to his career level (.267) and the past two weeks have helped. In that time he has an OPS of 1.233 aided by a .386/.460/.773 slash line. He’s still striking out at a rate (24.8%, 2024) higher than his career mark (22.4%), but his walk rate is in line with his career levels.
Keegan Akin – (7.3 P/IP)
The O’s lefty reliever has given up only three earned runs in June and his ERA is 1.65 for the month. He’s also been given a lot of opportunities to work out of the pen with 16.1 innings accumulated in the month. Roster Resource still has him listed as a low-leverage reliever, so there’s likely not much opportunity for saves or holds.
Kyle Hendricks – (7.2 P/IP)
Hendricks moved back into a starter role in his last two appearances and did well. He combined for a 2.13 ERA in 12.2 IP and struck out 12 while giving up no home runs. He’s likely back as the number-five starter in the Cubs rotation.
