The Brewers finish up their weeklong West Coast road trip this weekend in San Diego. They’ll face the Padres, who have been hanging around the .500 mark. Even though they are at 38-40 so far this season, they are just a half-game back in the wild card race. Entering Wednesday’s games, they have a 47% chance to make the postseason, per Baseball Reference. This is the second time these two teams are meeting this season. They met in Milwaukee back in April, and the Padres took the series 2-1.
The Padres offense has been one of the stronger offenses this season. Their 110 wRC+ is tied for fifth in MLB, and they have a team batting line of .257/.323/.397. Leading the offense are two outfielders, Jurickson Profar (164 wRC+, .419 OBP, 10 HR) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (135 wRC+, .348 OBP, 13 HR). Ha-Seong Kim leads the team in stolen bases (14), and Jake Cronenworth is the other batter with double-digit home runs (10). Manny Machado has been splitting time between third base and DH this season but is having a down year offensively (91 wRC+, .301 OBP). The Brewers will also not see Xander Bogaerts in this series; he is on the injured list with a fractured shoulder. As a result, Cronenworth has moved over to second base with Luis Arraez (who leads the NL All-Star vote at second despite playing only six games at the position this season) moving to first base.
As for the pitching staff, they’ve been around the middle of the league this season. Their team ERA (4.08) is 17th in MLB and FIP (3.97) is 15th. One area of strength is their strikeout rate (8.88 K/9), which is sixth in all of MLB. Two of the Padres starters, Dylan Cease and Michael King, have already topped the 100-strikeout mark for the season. However, the starting staff has also taken a few hits. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are both on the injured list and the Brewers will not see them in this series.
In the bullpen, Robert Suarez has been serving as the closer this season. He’s recorded 17 saves so far this season, and the Padres are 28-1 when he pitches. His only blown save and loss came on Tuesday against the Phillies. Behind him are LHP Yuki Matsui (4.02 ERA) and Adrian Morejon (2.40 ERA), as well as RHP Stephen Kolek (5.35 ERA), Enyel De Los Santos (3.64 ERA), Wandy Peralta (4.00 ERA), Jhony Brito (3.72 ERA), and Jeremiah Estrada (2.70 ERA).
Probable Pitchers
Thursday, June 20 @ 8:40 p.m: Bryse Wilson (3.84 ERA, 4.75 FIP) vs. Adam Mazur (7.82 ERA, 6.00 FIP)
After a few rough starts, Bryse Wilson pitched a strong game against the Reds. He pitched 5 1⁄3 innings, allowing just three hits and two walks. Before that, he allowed seven runs against the Tigers. Going back further, he regularly allowed 2-3 runs per start in his five starts before that. Wilson’s longest starts of the season were six innings long, and he’s maxed out at 91 pitches thrown in a start.
Adam Mazur is fifth on the Padres top prospects list, per MLB.com. He was called up on June 4 and joined the rotation after Darvish and Musgrove went on the IL. After posting a quality start in his MLB debut against the Angels, he allowed eight runs to the Diamondbacks and two runs to the Mets. In the minors, he’s split time between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Through 10 minor league starts, he has a 3.86 ERA and 50:9 K/BB ratio.
Friday, June 21 @ 8:40 p.m: Colin Rea (3.29 ERA, 4.46 FIP) vs. Dylan Cease (3.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP)
The month of June has been good for Colin Rea. Over three starts, he’s allowed just three earned runs in 17 innings, good for a 1.59 ERA. He’s made two straight quality starts, one against the Blue Jays (7 IP, 1 ER) and one against the Reds (6 IP, 2 ER).
Cease is one of the Padres two big strikeout pitchers. He has 106 strikeouts in 86 2⁄3 innings, good for an 11.0 K/9 rate. However, he’s cooled down after a hot start to the season. Through May 8, he had a 2.19 ERA and 2.28 FIP. Since then, he’s posted a 6.27 ERA and 4.71 FIP across seven starts. He’s allowed at least three runs in six of those starts. His last start against the Mets was particularly brutal. He allowed seven runs in 3 2⁄3 innings of work. The Brewers managed just one run off of him in six innings in their first meeting.
Saturday, June 22 @ 6:15 p.m: Carlos Rodriguez (6.48 ERA, 4.11 FIP) vs. Randy Vasquez (5.70 ERA, 5.66 FIP)
Through two major league starts, Carlos Rodriguez has been roughed up a bit. He’s allowed six earned runs in his first 8 1⁄3 major league innings. In those starts, he’s also allowed 12 hits and three walks, striking out seven batters. Rodriguez hopes to turn around his early struggles against the Padres in this one.
Randy Vasquez is in his second season in the majors. He’s bounced between the MLB and the minors a few times this season. Over nine starts this season, he has allowed at least three runs in seven of those starts. That includes six runs on 12 hits in his last start against the Phillies. He’s allowed a lot of hits (93 in 80 1⁄3 innings so far), but does not walk many batters (only 9 so far in the majors).
Sunday, June 23 @ 3:10 p.m: Tobias Myers (3.26 ERA, 4.66 FIP) vs. Michael King (3.49 ERA, 4.11 FIP)
Tobias Myers is making a strong case for Brewers Pitcher of the Month for June. In three June starts, he’s pitched 20 1⁄3 innings and allowed only one earned run, good for a 0.44 ERA. Over those starts, he’s allowed a total of eight hits and six walks and has also collected 15 strikeouts. The one run he allowed came on a solo home run.
He’ll have a tough challenge as he’ll face Michael King. King is the other side of the Padres’ strikeout duo, posting 101 strikeouts in 87 2⁄3 innings this season. After a rough start to the season, King has been difficult to score on. He’s allowed five runs in his last five starts covering 26 2⁄3 innings. The Brewers faced him earlier this season back in April. He allowed just one run in 7 2⁄3 innings, striking out 10.
Prediction
The two teams are similar with strong offenses and average pitching staffs. The starting pitcher matchups are all competitive, and each of these games could easily go either way. The Brewers have improved since the first time these two teams met, but the Padres will be a good challenge for them. This one looks like it will be a split between the two teams.
