Tigers vs Royals Run Line: AL Contender Stats (2024)

It’s been a while since the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have competed atop the American League baseball standings. But as we near the unofficial quarter mark of the season, both clubs are off to relatively promising starts. The Royals enter Monday’s (7:40 p.m. ET) series opener at Kauffman Stadium at 29-19, with the Tigers not far behind at 23-23.

Kansas City is +1.5 (-185) on the run line and -115 on the moneyline for the opener, while Detroit is -1.5 (+154) and -105. Meanwhile, the projected total is 9 with a slight edge to the Under at -120. Bettors can get the Over at +100 odds.

The Royals are also -120 favorites to win the series, compared to +100 for the Tigers.

What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Tigers vs Royals run line in our Major League Baseball series preview.

Tigers vs Royals Betting Trends

The Detroit Tigers are just 21-25 against the run line, including 4-6 over their last 10 games. The Tigers have fared much better for Over/Under bettors, going 23-20-3. Only four clubs have hit the Over at a higher rate than Detroit (53.5%).

The Kansas City Royals, on the other hand, have baseball’s second-best record against the run line at 29-19. Only Cleveland (29-18) is better. The Royals have covered in three straight games and five of their last seven. Meanwhile, the Royals have the second worst record against the Over/Under at 17-29-2.

It is important to remember these betting trends when analyzing the Tigers vs Royals run line.

Pesky Tigers Hanging Around

Detroit got off to a strong start on its six-game road trip, taking two of three from Arizona. The Tigers scored 25 runs over the three games, with the oft-maligned Javy Baez accounting for much of the damage (8 for 13, 7 RBI).

The Tigers are now 23-23, which is about where most prognosticators expected them to be. They were projected for 80.5 wins — in other words, a .500 club.

Detroit will need to improve its run production to keep pace in the surprisingly competitive American League Central, which has four teams at .500 or better as we approach Memorial Day. The Tigers rank 21st in baseball in runs scored (193), 25th in home runs (38) and 19th in batting average (.234).

Spencer Torkelson’s issues have been a big issue. The former No. 1 overall pick has homered just three times over his first 172 at-bats, causing his OPS to plummet to .651.

However, their pitching has been borderline elite led by ace left-hander Tarik Skubal (Wednesday’s projected starter). The Tigers rank seventh in the majors with a 3.29 team ERA and are 7-2 when Skubal starts.

Oddsmakers are still skeptical of the Tigers’ staying power, pricing them +750 to win the AL Central. Those MLB betting lines put them fourth in the division, ahead only last-place Chicago (+25000). The Tigers are also +3000 longshots to win the AL.

Royal Success

Kansas City has displayed considerable progress on the heels of 106 losses, starting 29-19. The Royals, who lead the AL with 18 home wins, have pulled within 1.5 games of first-place Cleveland atop the division.

The Royals swept a three-game series from Oakland over the weekend to move to 8-3 over their last 11 games.

As such, the Royals improved to +350 to win the division and remain on pace to shatter their projected win total of 73.5.

The Royals have one of the game’s brightest young stars in shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (25 RBI, 15 SB, .867 OPS) and a future Hall of Famer at catcher in Salvador Perez (8 HR, 37 RBI, .950 OPS), who is enjoying a renaissance season at age 34. They are tied for eighth in runs scored (221) and boast the AL’s fourth-best run differential at plus-55. That may be the best indicator their strong start is no fluke.

Kansas City is still only +1900 to win the AL, one of nine clubs priced better than 20/1, but those odds will surely continue to grow if the first month-plus is any indication. Bettors will need to take notice, as the Royals’ 60.4% cover rate against the run line is the second highest in baseball. That includes a 7-4 mark over their last 11 games.

Series Probables

Game 1

Monday, 7:40 p.m. ET

Reese Olson vs Michael Wacha

Olson’s eight scoreless innings (career-high) in Tuesday’s 1-0, 10-inning loss to Miami dropped his ERA to 2.09. It was already the sixth time this season Olson has pitched five or more innings while allowing one run or fewer and not gotten a victory. He ranks seventh in ERA and 13th in WHIP (0.99).

The Royals will counter with Wacha, who is 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA. Wacha has won his last two starts, allowing four runs (three earned) in 12 innings.

Keep that in mind when assessing the Tigers vs Royals run line.

Game 2

Tuesday, 7:40 p.m. ET

Casey Mize vs Alec Marsh

After missing all last season following Tommy John surgery, Mize, the former No. 1 overall pick, has bounced back with a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his first eight starts. Like Olson, Mize (1-2) has not gotten much run support. However, he seems unaffected by the lack of help.

Marsh, meanwhile, is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four appearances spanning 20.1 innings. Command (10 walks in 37 innings) has been the only issue for the 26-year-old right-hander.

Game 3

Wednesday, 2:10 p.m. ET

Tarik Skubal vs Cole Ragans

Skubal has separated himself as the clear frontrunner for AL Cy Young. The left-hander is 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, ranking fifth or better in all three categories. He also has a career-best 8.3 strikeout/walk ratio.

Skubal held Arizona to one hit over six innings in his last start, a 13-0 win on Friday. That improved his Cy Young odds to +200.

Ragans, meanwhile, is fourth on the Cy Young odds board at +1200. The southpaw is 3-3 with a 3.70 ERA. He also ranks ninth in baseball with 64 strikeouts.

For MLB live scores, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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