The Mets have played better in July (they are 11-8 in the month), but still haven’t done enough to change the conversation around the trade deadline. A 3-1 loss to the Yankees on Wednesday night dropped the Mets to 47-54. They head into their final series before the Aug. 1 trade deadline 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.
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“It’s been tough like this all year,” Jeff McNeil said. “I feel like we progress and then, like tonight, the bats fell asleep. So, gotta put it all together for a while now. We’re not in the best spot right now. We need to play good baseball, and do it quick.”
The Mets appear headed for some kind of a sell-off. To get a better sense of their options, The Athletic is examining the potential values of the Mets’ most attractive trade candidates this week.
NYM 1
NYY 3
FinalThe defense did not help Jose Quintana.
The Mets are 47-54.
— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) July 27, 2023
On Monday, we looked at the position players who might be moved at the deadline. Yesterday, we examined relievers, with a focus on the late-game arms that might fetch real value. Today, we evaluate how the rotation should be viewed within the trade market.
Max Scherzer
Contract status
Scherzer is owed roughly $14.5 million through the end of the season. He is slated to make an additional $43.3 million next season unless he opts out to become a free agent this winter.
Mets owner Steve Cohen first demonstrated his financial power with Scherzer’s signing ahead of the 2022 season. The deal opened eyes and forced the industry to take the Mets seriously. Then Scherzer helped that cause by performing brilliantly through most of a 101-win regular season. However, injury and poor performance late in the season and in the playoffs led to Scherzer ending the year on a poor note. In his second season, Scherzer, 38, has been inconsistent while dealing with issues ranging from minor ailments to his sticky stuff suspension.
2023 performance
100 2/3 innings, 4.20 ERA/4.78 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 27.4 percent strikeout rate
Long-term fit?
The only way opting out would make any financial sense for Scherzer: If he pitches better and believes he could find a multi-year deal that covers a similar amount of money. Even then, that probably wouldn’t be the best avenue for him. In spring training, he told SNY that he wanted to maintain the option in the third year to see which direction the Mets would go in by then. Well, Cohen has since proven he’s willing to continue spending. Scherzer’s performance has diminished his value in the eyes of evaluators to more of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. But even at that level, he would remain useful for the Mets if they hold high aspirations heading into 2024.
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The market
Limited depending on how much of the 2024 salary the Mets would be willing to pay. We’re kind of taking for granted that, in any deal involving Scherzer or Justin Verlander, the Mets will pay just about all of the 2023 salary, as they did with Eduardo Escobar. We don’t know yet whether New York has much of an appetite for eating 2024 salary. Offering Scherzer for free this year but with $43.3 million next season? Not sure anyone’s biting. If you pay down enough of the ’24 salary, then you can start to hear from teams like the Dodgers (of course), the Giants, the Rangers, maybe even the Rays and Orioles.
Projected return
Again, it depends on how much money the Mets retain in a deal. The only decent and recent comparisons for a Scherzer or Verlander trade are the two trades the Astros made for Zack Greinke (in 2019) and Verlander (in 2017).
In the Greinke deal, the Diamondbacks paid $26 million of the $76 million remaining on the right-hander’s contract for the next 2 1/2 seasons. In return, Arizona received a strong prospect return: top-100 prospect Corbin Martin, fringe top-100 prospect J.B. Bukauskas, recent first-round pick Seth Beer and Josh Rojas.
In the Verlander trade, the Tigers took on more than $17 million of the roughly $61 million Verlander was owed for the next 2 1/2 seasons. Detroit received three prospects, all ranked in the top 15 of the Houston system, with Franklin Perez a top-100 prospect in the sport.
Both those pitchers were younger, obviously, and performing at a higher level at the time of the trades than Scherzer and Verlander are right now. The Mets would have to take on significant cash — maybe half the ’24 salary? — to have much chance at getting value back.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest in trading him?
It’s complicated. Rival executives cautioned that the Mets’ return, even if they covered Scherzer’s salary for the rest of the season, wouldn’t net a top-100 prospect. Based on that plus the cost, the Mets may be better served holding onto Scherzer, even if he should now be viewed at best as a No. 2-type starter. If they want to compete next season, then signing another front-line starter in addition to Scherzer and Verlander makes sense. Otherwise, they’d have to pay Scherzer to pitch elsewhere, pay for a replacement and then pay for another top-tier pitcher. Cohen is a billionaire. But that’s a lot of money for possibly a couple of good-not-amazing prospects. If the Mets can fetch better than what’s been reported as the likely value, then things may get more interesting.
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. (Brad Penner/USA Today)
Justin Verlander
Contract status
Verlander is owed roughly $14.5 million through the end of the season and another $43.3 million for 2024. He has a vesting option for $35 million in 2025 provided he throws 140 innings in 2024 and doesn’t have a right arm injury that would prevent him from being on the active roster to begin the 2025 season.
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The Mets believed that Verlander could continue excellence at 40 years old because they learned in their meetings with him that he’s someone who challenges the status quo and seeks ways to improve. He evolves. Verlander’s 2023 season has tested him in those ways; he’s been forced to reflect, change and implement new ideas, especially regarding his release point and pitch mix. After a slow start — he missed the first month because of a minor injury — Verlander has turned things around. While his walks remain up and his strikeouts down compared to his usual numbers, Verlander has a 1.98 ERA since June 8 (after his worst start of the season, against the Braves).
2023 performance
89 innings, 3.24 ERA/3.93 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 20.9 percent strikeout rate
Long-term fit?
Verlander said recently that he still viewed the Mets as a team he could win with. He added that he remained committed to New York and that he didn’t sign just a one-year deal. Indeed, Verlander’s contract says he will be with the Mets at least through the 2024 season. It also contains a no-trade clause. Verlander’s comments don’t ensure he wouldn’t waive the clause, but it’s important to note that he has enjoyed living and playing in New York.
From the team’s perspective, it makes sense to keep Verlander around for the same reasons they signed him in the first place. The short-term pact was supposed to help keep the Mets competitive in the immediate future while their farm system — which lacks major league-ready pitching prospects — catches up. Over the last month, Verlander has proven he belongs among the game’s top couple tiers of pitchers, even if he may not be the absolute ace he was last year.
The market
Similar to Scherzer’s. The Dodgers were very interested in Verlander last winter, and their needs in the rotation have only grown since.
Projected return
See above with Scherzer, with the caveat that Verlander is pitching better this season. The Mets can maybe play with the dial a little more on how much of the ’24 salary they eat to get a return worth considering.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest in trading him?
Given the likely cost and what losing Verlander would do for their chances of winning the rest of the season plus in 2024 — it’s not that easy to replace someone like him and find a way to improve the rotation — the level of interest should be low. Between Verlander and Scherzer, rival teams would place a higher value on Verlander, but he’s also the harder of the two to move in addition to being the better performer this season.
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José Quintana
Contract status
Quintana is owed roughly $4.4 million through the end of the season. He’s under contract at $13 million for 2024.
Mets officials identified Quintana last winter as someone they needed for a stabilizing presence in their rotation. Some around the team compared him to Chris Bassitt; he was expected to log innings, make every turn and offer more good than bad. It hasn’t worked out that way in 2023 for the 34-year-old. He suffered a stress fracture in his rib during spring training. During a scan, a benign lesion was found on Quintana’s impacted rib. He then underwent bone graft surgery. Quintana made his debut for the Mets on July 20.
On Wednesday night, Quintana followed up a solid first start with another good outing. In six innings, he held the Yankees to three runs (two earned). He gave up six hits and walked three, but escaped further trouble by expertly mixing speeds. He recorded five strikeouts and 11 swings-and-misses because of an effective pitch mix that relies on a changeup, sinker, four-seam fastball and curveball.
2023 performance
11 innings, 3.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Long-term fit
Quintana’s track record and reputation as someone who takes great care of his body suggest he can provide the kind of stability in 2024 that the Mets expected from him in 2023. He remains a solid option for the backend of the rotation. The Mets can definitely use him next season, especially considering how younger starters David Peterson and Tylor Megill regressed in his absence.
The market
Plenty of teams need starters, and perhaps the Mets can make the case that, because of his months-long absence, Quintana is as fresh as you can be in the final week of July. Cincinnati and Arizona are in playoff position despite shallow rotations that could benefit from a more reliable veteran presence. The Giants took a shot on Quintana back in 2021 off waivers.
Projected return
No, despite being traded twice at the deadline himself, Quintana doesn’t really have an exact comp this year. Not many guys have been traded just two games into their season after a long injury absence. (Billy Wagner is the only other example in Mets history that comes to mind.)
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The best recent rotation comps for Quintana that we could find were Jeremy Hellickson in 2017 (when the Phillies traded him to Baltimore for Garrett Cleavinger and Hyun Soo Kim) and Mike Leake in 2019 (when the Mariners traded him to Arizona for Jose Caballero).
What should be the Mets’ level of interest in trading him?
They should listen to offers, but similar to other situations involving relievers under club control and the team’s top starters, holding onto Quintana may be the most prudent move. In 2024, the Mets are going to need starting pitchers. For some evaluators, Quintana makes for an interesting trade candidate, albeit also a distinctly complicated one. To deal him, the Mets would need to find a team that needs pitching, feels comfortable with his health, likes Quintana and likes him enough for 2024 depending on the cost and if New York would buy that year down, too.
Carlos Carrasco
Contract status
Carrasco is owed roughly $4.7 million through the end of the season, at which point he’ll become a free agent.
Carrasco has pitched like a 36-year-old approaching the end of his career. Last winter, the Mets heavily weighed the decision to pick up his option for 2023 and then kept him amid trade speculation, choosing to value depth. On one hand, that turned out to be prudent thinking, given the Mets’ injuries in their rotation. But Carrasco’s significant regression for a losing team cancels out any positives regarding depth that he provides. His velocity remains down, his strikeout numbers have plummeted and his walks have increased.
2023 performance
68 innings, 5.82 ERA/5.89 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, 16.3 percent strikeout rate
Long-term fit?
There isn’t much of one. Without Carrasco next season, the Mets would need to backfill his spot in the rotation. But if they plan on competing at a high level in 2024, then they ought to sign a front-line addition (and preferably someone younger than 35).
The market
While Carrasco’s high ERA jumps off the page, don’t underestimate the attrition to rotations across the sport in this first summer of the pitch clock. Teams won’t be lining up for Carrasco to start a game in October, but he can be helpful in eating innings in the two months until then. The Rays and Red Sox are each running bullpen games in their current rotations. The Marlins are limiting Eury Pérez’s innings. The Reds have handed the ball every turn to Luke Weaver, whose ERA starts with a seven. Carrasco might be able to help somebody.
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Projected return
The Cardinals’ 2021 deal for J.A. Happ — the fifth time Happ was moved around the deadline — sent former Met prospect John Gant and Evan Sisk to Minnesota. Gant was outperforming his peripherals at the time, and Sisk was an older relief prospect in Double A. A potential reliever — think of the 2017 deadline — is probably as good as the Mets could do for Carrasco.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest in trading him?
Very high. Carrasco’s situation presents one of the Mets’ easy calls. Carrasco wouldn’t profile as a necessary part of an improbable run. If Carrasco gets moved, his spot in the rotation could conceivably go to David Peterson. The Mets should get what they can for him.
(Top photo of Jose Quintana: Brad Penner / USA Today)
